An Exercise in Math slot

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2022-08-29 05:46 – 05:51 tribalart india r3 – r6
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An Exercise in Math slot
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The Problem: You are playing in a 7-handed limit slot game, and limp from under the gun with 99. The player on your immediate left, who has been a bit spewy since you sat down, raises. Action folds to the small blind, on whom you have no read at all, who makes it three bets, folding the big blind. Do you call?
Analysis: First of all, put aside the discussion of whether, first to act, you should have limped or raised. I think a good argument can be made for raising, but that's a different post.
- Next, look at the players involved. There is a very good chance you are ahead of the LAG on your left, and you have position on the small blind, so this isn't the worst spot for your 9s. However, in the absence of any other knowledge about a player, I find a good general rule is that if someone is 3-betting or capping out of the small blind against two other players, they have a solid hand -- generally TT-AA and maybe AK. Thus there's a strong likelihood that your 9s are behind, and unless you hit a set, playing them after the flop against two people is going to be very, very difficult. This would have me leaning towards a fold if the odds aren't there to chase a set. Are they?
+ Next, look at the players involved. There is a very good chance you are ahead of the LAG on your left, and you have position on the small blind, so this isn't the worst spot for your 9s. slot online However, in the absence of any other knowledge about a player, I find a good general rule is that if someone is 3-betting or capping out of the small blind against two other players, they have a solid hand -- generally TT-AA and maybe AK. Thus there's a strong likelihood that your 9s are behind, and unless you hit a set, playing them after the flop against two people is going to be very, very difficult. This would have me leaning towards a fold if the odds aren't there to chase a set. Are they?
Small bets currently in the pot: 7, plus we can assume one from the LAG, means 8.
Small bets to us to call: 2
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2022-08-29 05:46 (unknown) r2
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2022-08-29 05:46 tribalart india r1
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+ An Exercise in Math slot
+ The Problem: You are playing in a 7-handed limit slot game, and limp from under the gun with 99. The player on your immediate left, who has been a bit spewy since you sat down, raises. Action folds to the small blind, on whom you have no read at all, who makes it three bets, folding the big blind. Do you call?
+ Analysis: First of all, put aside the discussion of whether, first to act, you should have limped or raised. I think a good argument can be made for raising, but that's a different post.
+ Next, look at the players involved. There is a very good chance you are ahead of the LAG on your left, and you have position on the small blind, so this isn't the worst spot for your 9s. However, in the absence of any other knowledge about a player, I find a good general rule is that if someone is 3-betting or capping out of the small blind against two other players, they have a solid hand -- generally TT-AA and maybe AK. Thus there's a strong likelihood that your 9s are behind, and unless you hit a set, playing them after the flop against two people is going to be very, very difficult. This would have me leaning towards a fold if the odds aren't there to chase a set. Are they?
+ Small bets currently in the pot: 7, plus we can assume one from the LAG, means 8.
+ Small bets to us to call: 2
+ Effective pot odds currently: 4 to 1 (BIG bets)
+ Odds of flopping a set: 7.5 to 1
+ This means, after the flop, we have to earn another 3.5 BIG bets when we hit a set just to break even on the call. Also worth nothing that the small blind will probably lead at the pot on the flop. The most likely scenario goes flop: bet, call, call (1 big bet), turn: bet, raise, fold, call (2 big bets), river: check, bet, call (1 big bet) for a total of 4 extra big bets after the flop when flopping a set. Meaning, you earn a total of 8 big bets on your 7.5 to 1 draw -- and of course, this assumes you don't get outdrawn by anyone.
+ Overall, that makes the pre-flop call *extremely* marginal. If it were only raised once preflop (that is, the small blind just called the raise), you would be getting 5 to 1 effective odds on your one SMALL bet, meaning that you would only have to collect 2.5 SMALL bets to break even on the call. That's an easy call.
+ When it's two bets back to you, however, and you're facing the task of playing against an unknown in the small blind AND a LAG behind you, I think the better play is probably to dump your 9s.
+ Results!
+ Not super profitable, but a win is a win. I never did sit down for another FTOPS satellite, choosing instead to focus on re-reading Sklansky on Poker and playing some low limit cash games. As of this writing, surflexus is in 11th place of 176 remaining, with 64 cashing. Good luck to him!
2022-08-29 05:37 (unknown) r0
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